In July 2007 the Roads and Traffic Authority (RTA) released its discussion paper,
Licensing of older drivers, in relation to which submissions were invited from the
community over the next three months. The main purpose of this paper is to assist the
current debate by presenting an overview of the relevant research and to offer a more
detailed jurisdictional comparison than is presented in the RTA publication. The publicly
articulated views of certain stakeholders are also discussed. The paper does not seek to lead
the debate in one direction or another.

Specific incidents: In a NSW context the debate concerning older drivers has both a
general and more specific focus. As to the latter, a particular focus is on the two serious
accidents involving young Sophie Delezio, the first in December 2003, the second in May
2006, both of which involved elderly drivers. [2.1]
The ageing population: Such incidents feed into the more general debate about the
licensing of older drivers. Its key concerns are that older drivers are a greater safety risk to
themselves and/or others, and that this problem will intensify as the population ages in
absolute as well as relative terms. The OECD reports that in Australia the percentage of the
population aged 65 or more is projected to rise from 12.6% in 2000, to 22.1% in 2030 and
25.2% in 2050. People aged 85 years and over as a proportion of the population is
projected to rise from 1.2% in 1997 to between 4.4% and 4.8% in 2051. The RTA reports
that the number of older Australians holding a driving license is projected to rise from
12.6% of those over 65 in 2000 to 22.1% in 2030. [2.2]
Policy issues: Policy makers in this area are faced with tough choices. On one side, there
are the ‘safety’ issues associated with the ageing population. On the other, ceasing to drive
can have enormous implications for the independence and mobility of many older people.
These problems are exacerbated in Australia by population trends which have seen more
and more people living more or less car dependent lives in suburban and regional areas.
The prospect facing policy makers is that the ageing population of ‘baby boomers’ is likely,
for a variety of reasons, to want to continue driving for as long and, probably, as far as
possible. Many may need to drive a private car if they are to access shopping, health,
entertainment and other facilities. [2.3]
In terms of the legislative and policy solutions, it is obvious that a whole of government
approach is needed to: plan explicitly for the mobility needs of the elderly; support
alternative transport options; build safer vehicles; and improve the roads infrastructure to
help older people to drive as safely as possible for as long as possible. [2.4]
The RTA reform proposal: In NSW at present older drivers must undergo a medical test at
80 years and an on-road test at 85 years. [3.1] The proposed scheme under the RTA
Discussion Paper would alter this system by requiring instead an annual medical test from
75 on, plus the issuing of a ‘local licence’ at 85 with a 10 km radius restriction. An on-road
test might be undertaken on a voluntary basis for those 85 years and over seeking to drive
outside their local area. [4]
Stakeholder responses: Responses to the RTA proposal have been varied. Most
controversial is the ‘local licence’ proposal, opposed by the Combined Pensioners and
Superannuants of NSW on the grounds that ‘medical tests and education work much
better’. The NRMA is also opposed to this aspect of the proposal, as is the Council on the
Ageing (NSW). [5.1-5.8]
Comparative licensing requirements: In Australia at present age-based driving tests are
only mandated in three jurisdictions, NSW, Tasmania and Western Australia. [6.1] In the
US two States require older drivers to undertake an on-road test at a given age, regardless
of a person’s driving record. This occurs in Illinois and New Hampshire, at 75 years of age
in both cases (same requirements apply in the District of Columbia) In two other States,
Delaware and Hawaii, an on-road test is mandated, but only for cause, for example after a
specific number of accidents or other points and infractions have occurred, or for specific
physical conditions. [6.2] Mandatory on-road tests are not a feature of licensing
requirements for older drivers in Canada. Instead, in a number of jurisdictions the
emphasis is on medical testing and education. The strictest testing standards and the most
comprehensive evaluation program is found in Ontario where driving licenses must be
renewed at 80 years of age and every two years thereafter. [6.3] In New Zealand a new
system for licensing older drivers was introduced on 4 December 2006. This new system
removed the mandatory on-road driving test that was previously needed to re-license at age
80 and two yearly afterwards. What remains in place is a medical certificate of fitness to
drive, with referral and support systems for GPs and health practitioners. Education and
information for GPs, health practitioners and older drivers are also be emphasized under the
new scheme. [6.4] Licensing procedures in Europe confirm that very few jurisdictions use
driving tests for older drivers. [6.5]
Statistical findings for NSW: When account is taken of the proportion of older persons in
the total NSW population, those who are 70 years or more are consistently overrepresented
in the figures for car driver fatalities. This over-representation is more marked still when
account is taken of the proportion of older people who are licensed to drive in this State.
Note, too, that not all drivers with a licence will actually drive and the number in this
category is likely to increase with age. These figures confirm findings from other
jurisdictions suggesting that older drivers are over-represented among those drivers who
are killed or seriously injured. [7.1]
Research findings on crash involvement: It has been predicted that, unless effective
countermeasures are put in place, older driver casualty crashes may comprise around 25-
30% of all casualty crashes by 2025. [8.1]
Researchers in the 1990s and later have argued that, at least as far as reduced driving skills
are concerned, the older driver crash involvement problem is mainly restricted to certain
subgroups of older people (those suffering from dementia, epilepsy or insulin-treated
diabetes), rather than encompassing all older drivers. [8.2]
In 2004 Liisa Hakamies-Blomqvist of the University of Helsinki, Finland stated:
• older drivers clearly have a higher risk of serious injury and fatality;
• the question of whether they are also at a higher risk of crashes remains unresolved;
• the greater physical vulnerability of older persons leads to an overrepresentationcalled
the ‘frailty bias’ – of their crashes in databases based on injury outcome;
Older drivers: a review of licensing requirements and research findings
• similarly, their risk estimates based on mileage driven are overestimated – ‘low
mileage bias’ – when compared with those of younger drivers with a higher yearly
mileage;
• most crashes involving older drivers occur at intersections; and
• the crashes in which older drivers are involved rarely involve speeding or risky
overtaking. [8.3]
Older drivers are more likely than younger drivers to be found responsible for the crashes
in which they are involved, although this finding has been questioned. [8.10]
Self-regulation: Research shows that many older drivers self-regulate their driving habits,
with the result that older driver crashes rarely occur at night, on weekends, in peak hour
traffic, or in inclement weather. However, the 2003 report of the Victorian Parliament’s
Road Safety Committee concluded ‘That while self-regulation may be valid for most older
drivers, it is not a satisfactory fail-safe strategy and cannot alone be relied upon to keep
incapable older drivers from being a safety hazard. Intervention by licensing agencies will
be necessary to ensure safety for all road users’. [8.9]
Dementia and older drivers: Snellgrove (2005) estimated that there may be approximately
162,500 older drivers with cognitive impairment associated with dementia on Australian
roads. She also estimated that potentially 107,250 accidents may be attributable to these
drivers every year. [8.11]
Mandatory age based assessments: With its emphasis on at risk sub-groups of older
drivers, contemporary research in this field tends to question the safety benefits of agebased
mandatory assessments for population wide groups of older drivers. Published in
2004 was research conducted by Langford and others into the effectiveness of mandatory
licensing testing for older drivers. The study compared the casualty crash involvement rates
of drivers aged 80 years and older in Melbourne (where there is no regular assessment) and
Sydney. Results showed that while there was no difference in crash risk for older drivers
based on population, Sydney drivers had statistically higher casualty crash involvement
than their Melbourne counterparts on a per licence issued basis and time spent driving
basis. These Australian findings were said to be consistent with overseas research, where it
is argued that mandatory testing has negative unintended consequences. [9.1]
Local licences: The acceptability to older drivers of different types of licensing restriction
was considered in a recent Canadian study. ‘Local licences’ were not popular among older
drivers. The authors concluded, ‘Our subjects’ preferences appeared to be inversely related
to the impact on autonomy and the ability to access the community’. [9.3]