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Tamworth Electorate Profile 2001

Tamworth Electorate Profile 2001

Advice on legislation or legal policy issues contained in this paper is provided for use in parliamentary debate and for related parliamentary purposes. This paper is not professional legal opinion.
Background Paper No. 02/1999 by Mark D'Arney
​​​
TAMWORTH (IND)
Enrolment at 2-11-2001 : 43,682
Enrolment at 1999 General Election : 43,592
% Variation on 1999 GE Enrolment : 0.2
% Quota variation Sect. 28A : -3.7
              SELECTED CHARACTERISTICS
              Square kilometres
          15638.45 Ranked
          Against All 93
          Male Female Persons Electorates
              Total persons*
          31101323056340653rd
              Aboriginal / Torres Strait Islander / Both Aboriginal/Torres Strait Islander*
          1470155330235th
              Australian born
          2841229623580354th
              Born Overseas
          16421613325590th
              Speaks English only and aged 5 years and over
          2742028595560157th
              Speaks language other than English(e) and aged 5 years and over
          551499105087th
              Australian citizen aged 18 years and over
          20598220844268228th
              Persons aged 65 years and over
          34054602800753rd
              Unemployed*
          17501093284336th
              Employed*
          14548112082575651st
              In the labour force*
          16298123012859943rd
              Not in the labour force*
          6489119801846941st
              Unemployment Rate*
          10.78.99.918th
              Employees (Agriculture, Fishing, Forestry)
          221188330949th
              Employees (Government, Admin, Defence)
          714412112626th
              Persons employed as tradespersons or labourers
          47231534625737th
              Employees (Manufacturing)
          2052566261862nd
              Employees (Finance and Insurance, Property and Business Services)
          9711132210378th
              Persons employed in professional occupations
          39982876687435th
              Persons enumerated same address 5 years ago*
          15787165863237348th
              Persons enumerated different address 5 years ago*
          11891122752416641st
              Tertiary qualifications
          24673362582962nd
              Trade qualifications
          51551807696249th
              No qualifications
          13278161522943026th
              Persons attending Infant, Primary or Secondary School
          628261771245911th
              Christian religion
          2606328077541403rd
              Non-christian religion
          12611323989th
              "Traditional" families
          709238th
              Single parent families
          184027th
              Weekly family income less than $500
          564029th
              Weekly family income $500-$999
          58802nd
              Weekly family income $1000-$1499
          217978th
              Weekly family income $1500 or greater
          104176th
              Occupied private dwellings which are being purchased
          522840th
      * For definitions see Background Paper 2/99

      Two-Candidate versus Two-Party Preferred results - by Antony Green
      Extract from NSW Elections 1999 Background Paper 4/99

      To win an electorate, a candidate must receive more than 50% of the vote after the distribution of preferences. This is carried out by successively excluding the candidate with the lowest primary vote, and distributing those votes as preferences to candidates remaining in the count. At the end of the count, the vote for the two remaining candidates is referred to as the 'two-candidate preferred count'.

      In most electorates, this will also be the same as the 'two-party preferred' vote, representing the final distribution of preferences between candidates representing the Labor Party, and the Liberal and National Party Coalition. However, there were 10 electorates at the 1999 New South Wales election that did not finish with a two-party preferred count. In Bligh, Cabramatta, Keira and Tamworth, the two-candidate preferred count was between Labor and Independent candidates, in Albury and Manly between Liberal and Independent candidates, and between National and Independent candidates in Dubbo and Northern Tablelands. Cessnock finished as a contest between Labor and One Nation, and Marrickville a contest between Labor and the Greens.

      In these electorates, the New South Wales Electoral Commissioner, Mr Ian Dickson, undertook an additional two-party preferred count for information purposes. These have been made available for the first time in [Background Paper 4/99].

      At the 1995 election, two party preferred counts were not available for the electorates of Bligh, Manly, Marrickville, Port Jackson and Tamworth. In the first four of these electorates, an estimate of two-party preferred count has been made. In Tamworth, there was no Coalition candidate in 1995, so the two-candidate preferred vote of Independent Tony Windsor has been used as the two-party preferred count.

      Two-Party Preferred Estimates in Tamworth

      In 1995, Tamworth was not contested by a Coalition candidate, and the two-candidate preferred vote for Independent Tony Windsor has been used as the Coalition two-party preferred vote. However, a National Party candidate nominated in 1999, and very different two-party preferred swings are produced for Tamworth, depending on whether Tony Windor's two-candidate vote is used as the non-Labor two-party preferred vote, or the special distribution between the Labor and National Party candidates.

      Throughout [Background Paper 4/99], the distribution between Labor and the National Party has been used. However, this inflates the swing to Labor between the two elections, so the following tables compare the impact on regional totals of using the two different counts.


      % Using Labor/Windsor Count% Using Labor/National Count
          Electorate/Region
      ALPLib/NatSwingALPLib/NatSwing
          Tamworth
      14.885.23.1to Lib/Nat45.254.827.4to Labor
          Western Country
      39.360.74.9to Labor42.657.48.2to Labor
          Country
      41.858.25.2to Labor43.156.96.5to Labor
          Statewide
      55.644.46.6to Labor56447to Labor


      1999 Election Results
      Extract from NSW Elections 1999 Background Paper 4/99

      LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLY : SUMMARY OF FIRST PREFERENCE VOTES
          Electoral
          District
      ALPLIBNATONPOtherVotesVotesRoll
          Tamworth
      5029..47012718281825204115043606


      LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLY : SUMMARY OF PERCENTAGE VOTE
          Electoral
      Percentage of First Preference VotesInformal
          District
      ALPLIBNATONPOtherVotesTurnout
          Tamworth
      12.4..11.66.769.41.394.4


      LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLY : SUMMARY OF TWO-PARTY RESULTS
          Electoral
      2PP Votes2PP Percent
          District
      ALPLib/NatALPLib/NatSwing
          Tamworth (2)
      114561386745.254.827.4to Labor
      (2) - See Page 2 for comment on the two-party preferred result in Tamworth

      LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLY : ACTUAL TWO-CANDIDATE PREFERRED RESULTS
      Winning CandidateDefeated Candidate
          Electorate
      PartyVote%PartyVote%
          Tamworth
      IND3228885.2ALP559714.8


          Tamworth
      Roll 43606
          Candidate
      PartyVotes%Swing
          First Count
          Windsor *
      IND2818269.42.0
          Mandel-Hayes
      ONP27186.76.7
          Barry
      ALP502912.4-4.0
          Cox
      NAT470111.60.9
          ....
      OTH0-5.6
          Final Count
          Windsor *
      IND3228885.23.1
          Barry
      ALP559714.8-3.1
          Exhausted
      27456.8
          Two-Party Preferred
          Barry
      ALP1145645.227.4
          Cox
      NAT1386754.8-27.4
          Exhausted
      1530737.7
          Formal
      4063098.72.4
          Informal
      5201.3-2.4
          Total
      4115094.4
      (NOTE: See comment on two-party preferred result in Tamworth on Page 2)


      Two Candidate Preferred
      Extract from NSW LA Elections 1999: Two-Candidate preferred results by Polling Place
      Background Paper 6/99

          TAMWORTH 1999
          Roll : 43606 (Turnout 94.4%)
        POLLING PLACES
      BarryWindsorTotal
      (ALP)(IND)ExhstFormalInformalVote
      Votes%Votes%
          1
        Attunga
      44 10.6 371 89.4 31 446 5 1.1 451
          2
        Bendemeer
      44 14.1 267 85.9 22 333 2 0.6 335
          3
        Calala
      107 10.2 946 89.8 64 1117 13 1.2 1130
          4
        Carroll
      54 28.1 138 71.9 27 219 2 0.9 221
          5
        Curlewis
      87 26.4 242 73.6 38 367 10 2.7 377
          6
        Currabubula
      22 11.5 170 88.5 13 205 5 2.4 210
          7
        Dungowan
      18 7.3 230 92.7 16 264 2 0.8 266
          8
        Duri
      20 6.6 281 93.4 16 317 1 0.3 318
          9
        Gunnedah
      601 24.5 1855 75.5 262 2718 39 1.4 2757
          10
        Gunnedah High
      266 24.1 836 75.9 108 1210 21 1.7 1231
          11
        Halls Creek
      2 8.0 23 92.0 3 28 0 0.0 28
          12
        Hallsville
      13 5.2 237 94.8 18 268 0 0.0 268
          13
        Hillvue
      339 13.4 2200 86.6 164 2703 28 1.0 2731
          14
        Kelvin
      13 12.1 94 87.9 11 118 0 0.0 118
          15
        Kootingal
      129 11.3 1014 88.7 78 1221 7 0.6 1228
          16
        Loomberah
      8 5.4 139 94.6 11 158 1 0.6 159
          17
        Moonbi
      30 6.5 431 93.5 38 499 4 0.8 503
          18
        Moore Creek
      28 8.1 319 91.9 21 368 2 0.5 370
          19
        Morington
      231 21.4 849 78.6 121 1201 10 0.8 1211
          20
        Nemingha
      53 9.5 505 90.5 43 601 5 0.8 606
          21
        Niangala
      5 4.5 105 95.5 8 118 1 0.8 119
          22
        Nowendoc
      1 1.4 68 98.6 4 73 1 1.4 74
          23
        Nundle
      41 13.1 271 86.9 31 343 3 0.9 346
          24
        Oxley Vale
      178 13.2 1174 86.8 82 1434 23 1.6 1457
          25
        Peel High
      250 18.2 1121 81.8 101 1472 22 1.5 1494
          26
        Somerton
      11 6.3 165 93.8 15 191 1 0.5 192
          27
        Sydney (Tamworth)
      3 5.9 48 94.1 5 56 0 0.0 56
          28
        Tamworth
      250 12.2 1796 87.8 117 2163 27 1.2 2190
          29
        Tamworth High
      566 16.2 2919 83.8 230 3715 76 2.0 3791
          30
        Tamworth Hospital
      31 13.7 195 86.3 19 245 5 2.0 250
          31
        Tamworth North
      111 14.8 641 85.2 47 799 9 1.1 808
          32
        Tamworth Primary
      328 13.3 2129 86.7 156 2613 29 1.1 2642
          33
        Tamworth West
      222 15.4 1217 84.6 107 1546 23 1.5 1569
          34
        Timbumburi
      32 8.1 364 91.9 26 422 3 0.7 425
          35
        Walcha
      158 12.0 1154 88.0 90 1402 22 1.5 1424
          36
        Werris Creek
      198 20.9 750 79.1 48 996 7 0.7 1003
          37
        Westdale
      84 10.7 700 89.3 63 847 9 1.1 856
          38
        Woolbrook
      10 10.4 86 89.6 10 106 1 0.9 107
          39
        Woolomin
      30 19.9 121 80.1 7 158 5 3.1 163
          40
        Yarrowitch
      6 6.7 84 93.3 7 97 1 1.0 98
        Total Booth Votes
      4624 15.0 26255 85.0 2278 33157 425 1.3 33582
        Absent Votes
      476 16.2 2463 83.8 207 3146 48 1.5 3194
        Dec Inst Votes
      39 17.0 191 83.0 12 242 4 1.6 246
        Postal Votes
      154 13.4 994 86.6 68 1216 5 0.4 1221
        Pre-Poll Votes
      299 11.2 2371 88.8 175 2845 38 1.3 2883
        Section Votes
      6 27.3 16 72.7 2 24 0 0.0 24
        Total Declaration
      974 13.9 6035 86.1 464 7473 95 1.3 7568
        Grand Total
      5597 14.8 32288 85.2 2745 40630 520 1.3 41150


The information contained in this document has been extracted from the following sources:

NSW State Election 1999: Elec​​torate Profiles by Mark D’Arney Background Paper No 2/99

New South Wales State Electoral Districts Ranked by 1996 Census Characteristics by Mark D’Arney Background Paper No 1/99

NSW LA Elections 1999: Two-Candidate preferred results by Polling Place by Antony Green
Background Paper 6/99

New South Wales Elections 1999 by Antony Green Background Paper 4/99

Ranked data has been extracted from the Census96 spreadsheet data provided to the NSW Parliamentary Library by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The data used presents the 1996 Census data in relation to the New South Wales state electoral boundaries as redistributed in 1998.The tables in this publication should be read in conjunction with the definitions provided in the original publications cited above.

PLEASE NOTE:
Census 2001 figures are not expected to be published by the ABS until at least November 2002.