2011 NSW Election Preview - Analysis of Past Voting Patterns by Electorate
This publication uses old electorate boundaries
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Background Paper 1/2011 by Antony Green
Over the last two decades I have prepared numerous publications for the New South Wales Parliamentary Library dealing with election results, redistributions, and comparisons of state and federal elections. This paper draws together findings from a range of these publications to provide snapshots of the 93 Legislative Assembly electorates to be contested at the state election on 26 March. At the end of the paper I also provide a brief overview of past Legislative Council results and a comparison with recent Senate elections. A summary of Newspoll opinion polls is also provided.
The new research carried out for this publication has been to convert the results of the 2004 and 2010 federal elections to match the current state electoral boundaries. The 2007 federal election was not used as it is unlikely to be a good guide to the 2011 state election, while the 1996 to 2001 federal results are derived from past publications.
Results from state elections between 1991 and 1999, as well as federal elections from 1996 to 2001 have been re-estimated based on boundary changes introduced by the 2004 redistribution. The older elections have not been re-calculated, just adjusted based on changes outlined in the publication 2004 NSW Redistribution: Analysis of Final Boundaries (Background Paper 1/2005). A full list of the sources for this publications can be found in the bibliography. The estimates for elections before 2003 must be treated with caution. The estimates cannot take account of sitting member factors, or the rapid growth or turnover of electors that has occurred in some electorates. The aim of the publication has been to provide an overview of the history and voting patterns of each electorate, and older estimated margins must be treated as a guide only.
Advice on legislation or legal policy issues contained in this paper is provided for use in parliamentary debate and for related parliamentary purposes. This paper is not professional legal opinion.